[Babase] POTENTIAL_DADS view can be tested-ish

Susan Alberts alberts at duke.edu
Mon Oct 18 12:49:24 EDT 2010


> Niki writes:
> .......
> But I am a little confused as to why we don't want to count the  
> zdate as a
> potential dad day.  There are definitely consortships that occur on  
> the D
> day and that is the day we are saying that the pregnancy begins so  
> in theory
> I would think mounts occurring on the zdate could lead to conception
> (especially if deturg is in the afternoon), no?  Though I guess  
> Courtney's
> data indicates that deturg really occurs before the observers notice  
> it.
> But if conception never occurs on the ddate, why do we call the  
> zdate on
> that day?  Just trying to sort out the logic.

OK, this is a good point.

Here are some thoughts. One issue is, what do we do in order to be  
consistent with all our past work? The answer to that is, we do not  
include the Z date as a potential dad day. In the past, we have always  
restricted our analyses to days D- 1 through D- 5.

Another issue is, what is biologically most relevant? The laboratory  
data suggest that there is still a small chance of conception after  
deturgescence begins, it appears to be 10% or less. However, 10% is  
not nothing, and so perhaps we should include it.

Against this are (1) the fact that a male who arrived on D-Day has a  
vanishingly small chance of conceiving an infant with a female on that  
day, because if there are any males around her my experience suggests  
that they will be the males she has already been consorting with, and  
(2) the males that are usually with her on D-Day are the mails that  
were with her on the previous days.

So, taking all this into consideration, my inclination is to remain  
consistent with what we have done in the past and not to consider the  
zdate. However, I would like to hear from Jeanne on this, and I would  
also like to ask Courtney who has just spent a year and a half  
watching consortships.

Susan

------------------------------------------------------------
Susan Alberts, Professor of Biology, Duke University, Box 90338,  
Durham NC 27708. Phone 919-660-7272, FAX 919-660-7293






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